Florida's Red Flag Gun Law: Does It Help?
How Florida's red flag law affected firearm homicide and suicide rates.
I’m Paul Ciuryek, MD, and this is MedSpresso: An independent, subscriber-supported newsletter summarizing the most important and impactful news, studies, and research from the fast-changing world of healthcare. This newsletter is for you if you care about your health, the health of your loved ones, or the health of mankind.
Two blood-curdling statistics to kick this one off…
In the United States…
• Firearm homicides are a leading cause of death in people under 44 years of age.
• In 2022 alone, more than 48,000 people died from firearm-related deaths.
Mass shootings, especially in schools, are a particular area of concern.
In response to the 2018 Parkland high school shooting that claimed 17 innocent lives, Florida enacted a “red flag” law, permitting the temporary removal of firearms by local law enforcement officers from anyone posing a danger to themselves or others.
Few studies have looked into the effects of red flag laws and their impact on firearm-related homicides… The ones that did provide largely inconclusive findings.
A new study titled “Florida’s Red Flag Gun Law and Firearm and Nonfirearm Homicide and Suicide Rates,” conducted by Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health explored the impact of Florida’s legislation on its homicide and suicide rates.
The study’s synthetic control was a weighted combination of nineteen politically conservative states without gun laws similar to those in Florida. Whether this method is a valid proxy remains questionable.
BY THE NUMBERS…
FIREARM HOMICIDE RATES (2017, 2021):
Florida 2017: 4.51 deaths per 100,000 population
Control 2017: 4.50 deaths per 100,000 population
Florida 2021: 5.28 deaths per 100,000 population
Control 2021: 6.85 deaths per 100,000 population
FIREARM SUICIDE RATES (2017, 2021):
Florida 2017: 8.21 deaths per 100,000 population
Control 2017: 8.56 deaths per 100,000 population
Florida 2021: 8.85 deaths per 100,000 population
Control 2021: 9.31 deaths per 100,000 population
The study’s models also estimated yearly mortality rate ratios (MRRs) and the mean MRR during the post-law enactment period 2019-2021, again comparing Florida with its synthetic control.
It showed an 11% rate reduction in firearm-related homicide rates in Florida across the post-law period, equivalent to 0.73 fewer deaths per 100,000 population per year.
While firearm suicide and non-firearm suicide yearly MMR decreased after 2018, neither was significantly lower than expected across the post-law period.
WHAT IT ALL MEANS…
Firearm homicide mortality increased post-red flag law enactment, but the increase was lower than expected (compared to the synthetic control of 19 similar states).
While the study can’t definitively attribute the reduction in expected firearm homicide rates to red flag laws, findings suggest they might.
Further studies with more concrete controls may provide more insight into the effects of similar laws on curbing gun violence in the United States.
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